Super Bowl 2024 odds entering Week 11: Chiefs, 49ers tied for best chance to win title; a look at value picks

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We are inching closer to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. We’ve already reached the halfway point of the 2023 regular season, the trade deadline has come and gone, and we’re now starting to get a real sense of which teams are true contenders to possibly hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. With that in mind, now is as good of a time as ever to check back in on the latest Super Bowl odds and see who the oddsmakers have as the frontrunners to win it all. 

At the moment, it’s the Chiefs and 49ers who are tied with the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +480. For Kansas City, they are defending champions and are currently situated with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so it’s not surprising to see them at the top of these odds. 

The intrigue comes more with who they are tied with in the 49ers. Unlike K.C., the Niners are not the No. 1 seed at the moment and instead are the No. 3 seed in the NFC coming out of Week 10, looking up to the Lions and the top-seed Eagles. San Francisco did lose three straight heading into their Week 9 bye but reestablished itself as a legit title contender with the blowout win over Jacksonville, but it is a bit surprising to see Philadelphia not tied as the favorite. Instead, they are right behind the 49ers and Chiefs at +575. The Eagles are slated to face the Chiefs in Week 11 on “Monday Night Football” and a win at Arrowhead could shake up these odds.

Super Bowl odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

The Baltimore Ravens are currently the AFC team with the second-best Super Bowl odds but are coming off a meltdown against the Browns where they blew a 15-point lead. That certainly raises some red flags for this team going forward, but, from a talent perspective, Baltimore should prove to be a tough out. Lamar Jackson is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league and the Ravens have a defense that entered Week 10 at or near the top of the NFL in effectively every major statistic. 

Top value picks

There starts to be some value as you creep further down the odds, starting with the Dolphins (+1000) and Lions (+1200). Specifically with Miami, they are coming out of the Week 10 bye healthy. They’ve recently seen the return of corner Jalen Ramsey and just opened up the practice window for star running back De’Von Achane, further bolstering their high-flying offense. They are a team that could catch fire down the stretch more so than they already have this year. At 6-3, they’d need some help attaining the No. 1 seed in the conference, especially after losing the head-to-head matchup with Kansas City a few weeks ago in Germany. 

Best long shot 

The lone long shot that stands out is the Houston Texans at 70-1. C.J. Stroud is playing at a level not simply worthy of Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration, but he’s a bonafide MVP candidate as well. Houston just upset the Bengals on Sunday thanks to another game-winning drive by the quarterback, and they are only a game behind the Jaguars for first place in the AFC South. The Texans — who own the No. 7 seed at the moment — also have the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC with their upcoming opponents sitting at a .438 combined win percentage. If Stroud stays hot down the stretch, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Texans are hosting a playoff game in January, which would make a +7000 ticket a fun one to hold. 

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