NFL Week 4 early odds: 49ers big favorites over Patriots, large line swing in Chiefs-Chargers matchup

We are nearly a month into the 2024 regular season, and there have been plenty of surprises thus far. While we may have expected the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs to be undefeated at this juncture, the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks jumping out to 3-0 marks weren’t on a lot of bingo cards. It’s equally surprising to see the San Francisco 49ers sitting at 1-2 to begin the year. 

Week 3 also gave us a number of eyebrow-raising upsets, including the Carolina Panthers rolling over the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos taking down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to earn their first wins of the season. 

So, what does Week 4 have on deck? Below, we will take our first look at the fourth week of the regular season and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.

Week 4 early odds

(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)

Notable movement, trends

Cowboys at Giants (Thursday)

Both teams enter Week 4 sitting at 1-2 after Dallas fell to the Ravens, and the Giants entered the win column with a victory over Cleveland. Despite having the same record, the oddsmakers are making the Cowboys a 4.5-point road favorite in this NFC East matchup. Under Mike McCarthy, Dallas is 13-5 ATS as a road favorite. Under Brian Daboll, the Giants are 8-4-1 ATS as a home dog. 

Bengals at Panthers

This line may change following Cincinnati’s matchup on Monday night, but the club currently sits as a 5.5-point road favorite over Carolina. This is up slightly from the 5-point spread in favor of the Bengals at the open, so Andy Dalton’s prolific 2024 debut didn’t seem to do too much in moving the line closer to the Panthers. Carolina is 1-2 ATS on the season. 

Broncos at Jets

New York — more specifically Aaron Rodgers — seems to have impressed folks during the Thursday win over New England. After opening at Jets -6, this line has now crossed over the touchdown threshold as New York is now laying eight points. Denver got into the win column on Sunday after an impressive blowout over the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, but doesn’t seem to have moved the needle much for this upcoming contest. 

Jaguars at Texans

Jacksonville still has its Week 3 matchup with the Bills on deck for Monday night, so this line could change depending on what happens in that game. That said, the Texans are currently a 4.5-point favorite over their AFC South rival, which is up a point after opening at Houston -3.5. The Texans are 2-1 but were just throttled by the Minnesota Vikings on the road, and the C.J. Stroud-led offense has been shaky over the last couple of weeks. That has the club 0-2-1 ATS on the season. 

Rams at Bears

Chicago’s offense showed some flashes late, but ultimately fell to 1-2 on the road against the Colts in Week 3. However, as they head back to Solider Field for Week 4, they did sit as a slim 1.5-point favorite over the Los Angeles Rams. Sean McVay’s team is coming off a thrilling victory against the 49ers in Week 3, thanks to a go-ahead field goal with two seconds remaining in the matchup. That gave L.A. its first cover of the season, and it’ll be interesting to see if the public drives this line toward them as the week goes on. 

Vikings at Packers

Look at the Minnesota Vikings! Kevin O’Connell’s team is 3-0 to begin the year, both straight-up and against the spread. However, they gear up for an NFC North matchup with the Packers as a slight underdog. Green Bay is laying 2.5 points as the home team, which is quite a swing from the 5.5 points they were laying at the open. That change is likely aftershocks from Jordan Love’s injury, but it will be interesting to monitor his status and see how that may impact the line. Even without Love, Malik Willis was able to keep the Packers afloat to move to 2-1, which includes a cover in their lone game at Lambeau Field this season.  

Saints at Falcons

After a prolific start to the season offensively, the Saints came back down to Earth in a 12-point effort to the Eagles, who pulled away with the win in the final minutes on Sunday. The Saints will now head to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that also lost late as the Kansas City Chiefs made a key defensive stop to send them to 1-2. Thanks to New Orleans’ strong start to the year, it has brought this line down to a razor-thin margin. After opening at Falcons -4.5, the line is down to Falcons -1.5.

Early pick: The SportsLine Projection Model has the Saints covering as one of its strongest early picks on the Week 4 slate, giving it more than a 60% chance of happening. See all the model’s early Week 4 spread picks and score projections at SportsLine.

Eagles at Buccaneers

Philadelphia notched a critical road win on Sunday against the Saints, thanks to strong performances from Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert and are now favorites in this upcoming road matchup against the Bucs. The Eagles opened as a 3-point favorite but have since come down to Eagles -2.5. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 7-11-1 ATS as a road favorite. The availability of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for this game should also be monitored. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is looking to bounce back after a rough loss to the Broncos at Raymond James Stadium, where they managed just seven points. Dating back to last season, the Bucs are 2-2 ATS as a home underdog. 

Steelers at Colts

Pittsburgh is one of the more unlikely 3-0 teams in the NFL, but they have stayed perfect thus far, including a home win against the Chargers on Sunday. The Steelers are also 3-0 ATS to begin the season and are coming into this road matchup against Indy as a 1.5-point favorite. This is a considerable swing after the Colts opened as a small half-point favorite. Indy defeated the Bears in Week 3, but continues to look inconsistent on offense under Anthony Richardson, so Pittsburgh’s defense could remain a key storyline of their success in this matchup. That said, the club is only 32-40-3 (44.4%) ATS under Mike Tomlin as a road favorite. 

Patriots at 49ers

Both of these teams are coming off losses in Week 3. Of course, it’s more surprising to see the 49ers coming into this matchup at 1-2, particularly after dropping two straight. San Francisco allowed the Rams to rally late and sneak away with a win, but they will return to Levi’s Stadium as a big favorite over a depleted New England team. The Niners are a 10.5-point favorite over the Patriots, which is the largest spread on the Week 4 slate. However, it is down from an 11.5-point spread at the open. New England’s offensive line struggled to keep whoever was under center upright against the Jets, and that could be a similar story here against the Niners front. 

Commanders at Cardinals

The Commanders still have their Week 3 matchup to focus on, but the Cardinals have seen this line for Week 4 jump. After opening at Cardinals -2.5, Arizona is now a 5-point favorite over Washington. Even after falling to 1-2, Kyler Murray’s team has been competitive through the early goings of the season and is 2-1 ATS. 

Browns at Raiders

Both of these clubs are coming off rough losses in Week 3, with the Browns dropping a home matchup against the Giants while the Raiders were torched by the Andy Dalton-led Panthers. Those efforts seem to have turned this head-to-head into a coin flip. Initially, the Browns opened as a 2.5-point road favorite, but the spread now sits at Cleveland -1. 

Chiefs at Chargers

Justin Herbert’s ankle injury, mixed with the Chiefs continuing to look like a defending Super Bowl champion, has helped move this line considerably. Kansas City opened as a 3-point favorite, but that has since exploded to the Chiefs laying 8.5 points on the road. Since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 20-21-1 ATS as a road favorite. 

Bills at Ravens

Buffalo has its Week 3 contest against the Jaguars still to focus on for Monday night, but this is a doozy of a prime-time matchup next week. On paper, these are two of the top clubs in the AFC, and the oddsmakers are assuming this will be a tight contest. The Ravens are a 2.5-point favorite at home, and this line has crossed some key markers. It opened at Ravens -3.5 and has come down a full point, riding the hook and field goal advantage. Baltimore is 0-1 ATS at home this season. 

Titans at Dolphins (Monday)

This is a matchup between two of the toughest bets in the NFL. Both the Dolphins and Titans are 0-3 ATS on the season, so someone will be looking at their first cover on the 2024 campaign next week. Miami opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but after injuries to Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) and the uncertain status of backup Skylar Thompson (chest), the Titans are now a 1-point favorite. Overall, this should be a stay-away game until there’s clarity on the Dolphins quarterback situation. 

Seahawks at Lions (Monday)

The Lions opened as a 6-point favorite at home, but Seattle’s 3-0 start to the year has helped bring this line down to -4 coming out of Week 3. The Seahawks are 1-1-1 ATS on the season while Detroit is 2-1. Under Dan Campbell, the lines have covered 62.5% of their games as a home favorite (10-6).