The NFL’s return is such a hilarious and backbreaking reminder of how close these games are, and how absurdly good Vegas is at making NFL spreads. I talked about this a lot when I predicted the Eagles would go 9-8 — people got REAL mad, but as I noted at the time, there’s not really a huge difference between going 11-6 and going 9-8. It could be a couple random bounces.
Or maybe a really, really, REALLY poorly timed pick six by your quarterback after your team has been dominating for almost three quarters and the other team has snuck back in it thanks to a blocked punt to the house and the ensuing pick six. It’s enough to bring you to your knees.
There was no freaking way the Titans weren’t covering that game as a 3.5-point underdog after taking a 17-0 lead and coming out of halftime up 17-3, with the Bears barely able to move the football. AND YET… they didn’t. Chicago won 24-17 with 148 yards of offense.
The NFL is weird, weird things are going to happen, it’s a game played by dudes throwing and chasing and carrying an oblong, inflated piece of pig butt. Expect the unexpected.
We went 2-3 in Week 1 with really tough beats on the Titans and maybe the Packers (or maybe not). We ride again with five picks this week, including a couple of overs, even though overs have not looked super swell through the first week of the season.
Best Bets Week 1: 2-3
Best Bets YTD: 2-3
Best bets
Colts (-3) at Packers
Is this a sucker bet??? How is this not a sucker bet? The Colts are far from a perfect team and not a squad I’d be in love with taking as a road favorite early in the season. If this is Jordan Love vs. Anthony Richardson, it’s a whole different ballgame. But it’s not — it’s Anthony Richardson squaring off against Malik Willis. This is probably Packers -4 or Packers -5 if Love is starting, so the argument is the line moved too far relative to the value of a quarterback change. But the only way it hasn’t is if Matt LaFleur can utilize the run game with Josh Jacobs and the gimmick game with Jayden Reed and Willis enough to cover up Willis’ flaws as a passer. The Colts defensive front can slow down the former and the pass rush should create turnovers. Now, bear in mind, this line really hasn’t moved so far. It’s kind of terrifying. Although also bear in mind the Packers are talking as if Love might play on Sunday, which sounds just insane. That would obviously change this pick.
Broncos (+3) vs. Steelers
A real case of the pendulum swinging too far after one week of games. The Broncos probably aren’t a great football team (we’ll see!) and Bo Nix can’t throw downfield (again, we’ll see!). But they’re at home, with a massive elevation advantage that’s played out early in the season. The defense was stout against Seattle until the Seahawks adjusted at halftime; I don’t trust Steelers OC Arthur Smith to do the same thing Ryan Grubb did on offense. The Steelers have 12 wins with less than 300 yards in the last five years, most in the NFL and the Steelers under Smith led the NFL with 41 rush attempts last week, meaning we shouldn’t see some offensive explosion from Pittsburgh that forces Bo Nix to keep up. We might also get a close game, which favors the dog significantly. Also a fun fact: Mike Tomlin has never beaten Sean Payton head to head, going 0-3 against the Broncos head coach.
Which picks can you make with confidence, and which four A-rated against-the-spread picks should you lock in now? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000.
Cowboys (-6) vs. Saints
This is a case of Week 1 being a little bit of a disguise when it comes to Week 2. We saw the Saints DOMINATE against the Panthers. Derek Carr looked awesome, Klint Kubiak is a new analytics darling, etc. The Cowboys were very good but the win is overshadowed by how poorly Deshaun Watson and the Browns played. I don’t want to ding the Saints too bad, because I think they’re better than I gave them credit for, but this is a great spot for the Cowboys. Home opener, offensive line playing reasonably well, plus Marshon Lattimore could miss this game for the Saints, opening up a chance for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to really go off. The Kubiak stuff is interesting because new Cowboys DC Mike Zimmer spent a TON of time coaching with both Gary and Klint Kubiak and I think he’ll generally know how to slow down the Saints offense. I also think the Saints offensive line looked better than it is against a joke of a pass rush for Carolina. The Cowboys are a great teaser leg, as well.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Over 51
Sort of a donkey play, but I don’t care. This game profiles as a big-time shootout. The Buccaneers look like they could be a stop-the-run pass funnel once again this year and the Lions are kind of the same. Both teams are trying to figure out what their secondaries will be — and I think both will be good/decent/whatever, but it’s gonna take some time — and Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are both slinging it right now. Each guy has multiple weapons to choose from, whether it’s the Lions with Jahymr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta or the Bucs with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. Both offensive lines protect well enough to hold off the pressure and we’re just going to get a lot of successful passing in this game with a decent chance it flies into the 60’s.
Giants vs. Commanders Over 43
Decent chance this goes completely opposite in my face, considering how inept these two offenses might be. But I think both groups have a lot to prove in this game. This could be Daniel Jones’ last stand. If you can’t move the ball against the Commanders defense, what are you doing out there? It’s a bit of a squeaky wheel spot for Malik Nabers, who could erupt here against a very porous secondary. On the other side, Washington would love to get Jayden Daniels going as a passer, but it might not be as easy with Dexter Lawrence and the edge rushers coming at him. We could see plenty of scrambles for big gains, or possibly even some quick hitting shots that turn into chunk plays. Life should be a little easier against the Giants than it was against Tampa in the secondary. If Sam Darnold can rip ’em up, so can Daniels. Sneaky shootout coming.
