In the final game of Week 17, the San Francisco 49ers will play host to the Detroit Lions on “Monday Night Football.”
San Francisco has been eliminated from the playoffs, but still has a chance to at least leave an impression on the Lions that they still hold an edge in the matchup. The Niners knocked the Lions out in last year’s NFL title game, and being able to capture another win on Monday night could be a reminder heading into next year that they’re still a force to be reckoned with in the conference.
Detroit, meanwhile, can maintain its hold on first place in both the NFC North and the conference as a whole by winning this matchup. The ultimate determination of those spots will come down to the big showdown with the Vikings next Sunday night, but there is still the revenge factor motivation, plus a potential narrower path to the NFC’s top seed that could point toward the Lions being more interested in going all out for this game than it might appear on the surface.
Will the Lions get their revenge, or will the Niners capture another victory? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
49ers vs. Lions where to watch
Date: Monday, Dec. 30 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
TV: ABC | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting odds: Lions -3.5, O/U 50.5 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Lions have the ball
As we have all seen throughout this season, Detroit’s offense is essentially a machine that grinds through any wrench that might get stuck in its gears.
Despite having played fewer games than all but one other team, Detroit comes into this game ranked second in the NFL in yards and first in points. The Lions are first in points per drive, first in the share of drives ending in a touchdown or field goal and first in offensive success rate, via Tru Media. They can do anything. They’re second in EPA per pass and fifth in EPA per rush, second in passing success rate (by a mere 0.2%) and third in rushing success rate (by 0.1%).
The 49ers enter this game banged up on defense, with Javon Hargrave and Kevin Givens still on injured reserve, Drake Jackson still on PUP, De’Vondre Campbell still suspended and Dre Greenlaw listed as out after returning just two weeks ago. Their best defensive lineman, Nick Bosa, will spend the game rushing against arguably the NFL’s best tackle duo in Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker. Their best overall defender, Fred Warner, will be tested as much as he has been all year, as nobody attacks the middle of the field better than the Lions.
Detroit is still without David Montgomery, but we have seen what Jahmyr Gibbs is capable of when Montgomery is out. It’s not fun for defenses to chase that guy around all game. Throw in his sheer explosiveness with the consistent reliability of Amon-Ra St. Brown, the threats posed by Sam LaPorta and the other complementary passing-game options and Ben Johnson scheming up some of the wildest stuff imaginable, and it’s hard to see how anybody ever stops this unit — let alone a Niners defense that is not operating near peak condition.
Of course, we may not see the Lions operating at peak condition, either. This game isn’t quite meaningless for the Lions — a win over San Francisco opens up the possibility of a Week 18 tie against the Vikings also landing Detroit the NFC North title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But the season will come down to that game either way, and it’s easy to justify not necessarily throwing every single thing you’ve got into this one.
Then again, the Lions are coached by Dan Campbell. And they’ve been very intentional about “revenge games” this season, from blasting Dallas to making sure Montgomery had a huge day in the first game against the Bears. So, it’s also pretty easy to envision them coming out and trying to lay the wood on the team that defeated them in last year’s NFC title game.
When the 49ers have the ball
The San Francisco offense is another unit that has not been operating near its peak this year. Christian McCaffrey has missed almost the entire season. The same is true of Brandon Aiyuk. George Kittle missed a few games. Jauan Jennings missed a few. Trent Williams has missed a bunch and won’t play this week or next. Even the backup running backs who have excelled in McCaffrey’s place — Elijah Mitchell, Jordan Mason, Isaac Guerendo — have missed a game or much more. Deebo Samuel may as well have been absent for much of the year, given his level of contribution up until last week.
That would be more concerning if they were facing a defense other than this Lions group, which may be the only playoff-caliber unit in the league that has dealt with more injury issues than the Niners offense. Alex Anzalone, Marcus Davenport, John Cominsky, Derrick Barnes, Khalil Dorsey, Malcom Rodriguez, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Carlton Davis, Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Kyle Peko are all on injured reserve. Jalen Reeves-Maybin has been designated to return but has not yet gotten back on the field. The only expected starters left on the field are DJ Reader, Jack Campbell, Terrion Arnold, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. That is insane.
San Francisco should be able to get some things going offensively on Monday night, provided the offensive line can hold its own. Brock Purdy has generally been more aggressive this year than in years past; Kittle, Jennings and Samuel are available and healthy, and Guerendo should be back.
Given the condition of the Lions defense, there will be openings for all of them to make plays. The question is whether they can make enough plays to keep up with the Lions … and that’s hard to envision.
Prediction
Detroit is going on the road and playing against the team that ended its playoff run a year ago. If we know anything about Dan Campbell teams, it’s that they want to win that type of game perhaps even more than any other. And the Lions offense is just too efficient, they’ll be too explosive to keep down. Pick: Lions 33, 49ers 23
