Brad Cox will always have a Kentucky Derby victory in the record books, but the trainer hasn’t experienced the euphoric moment of celebrating his horse crossing the finish line first. Mandaloun, trained by Cox, won the 2021 Kentucky Derby following the post-race disqualification of Medina Spirit. The 45-year-old trainer hopes Final Gambit can deliver that traditional victory on Saturday at the 2025 Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs. Final Gambit is a 30-1 longshot in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, so how confident should you feel about including him in 2025 Kentucky Derby bets?
The top 2025 Kentucky Derby horses in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field like Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1), all have Grade 1 stakes experience. However, Mandaloun didn’t have Grade 1 stakes experience before his Run for the Roses win for Cox. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, you’ll want to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks or horse racing predictions.
A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta, which paid $1,268.20 for $2. In 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.
In May of last year, Menez nailed 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 jackpot. This year, he hit the winner and exacta in the Holy Bull Stakes and the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby. Anyone who has followed him on betting apps like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET could have been way up.
For the Run for the Roses, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Menez’ surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Sandman (6-1), even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top 2025 Kentucky Derby favorites. While it’s always impressive to win a G1 race like at Arkansas, that race lags behind several other prep races in terms of producing Kentucky Derby winners. The Arkansas has been around for nearly 90 years but only three horses have won the Arkansas Derby and then went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Three victories is still three more than Sandman’s trainer and jockey have at The Run for the Roses. Trainer Mark Casse is 0 for 10 with Derby starters, never finishing in the money and having an average finish of 10.8. Meanwhile, jockey Jose Ortiz is 0 for 9 in his Derby career, and while he’s ridden a horse in each of the last four Kentucky Derbies, he has an average finish of 13.5 over this stretch. Sandman is very talented, but with the third-shortest odds there are too many red flags to invest in him with Kentucky Derby 2025 bets. Menez thinks a late charge to a third-place finish is the best-case scenario for Sandman, making him a horse to fade when finalizing how to bet the Kentucky Derby 2025.
Another curveball: Menez is high on Burnham Square, even though he is a 12-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Burnham Square won the Blue Grass Stakes on April 8 for his third victory over his last four starts, including his second graded stakes victory. Burnham Square won the Holy Bull on February 1 with a stretch run to defeat Tappan Street, who went on to win the Florida Derby. Tappan Street injured his leg in a workout, which has him out of the Kentucky Derby. Otherwise, Tappan Street likely would have been a popular Kentucky Derby bet, so knocking off the future Florida Derby winner is certainly an impressive victory for Burnham Square.
Burnham Square was toward the back of the seven-horse pack at the final turn of the Blue Grass Stakes before surpassing the field at the final moment with an incredible late run. Menez expects that closing speed displayed again as the further distance of a 1 1/4-mile race could play to Burnham Square’s advantage. At 12-1 odds, Menez sees value in Burnham Square for 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses he likes at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, picks
Menez’ top pick is a horse who “is bred to only get better with the added distance.” He’s also high on a double-digit longshot who owns “the most awesome turn of foot of any of the Kentucky Derby hopefuls.” Menez is sharing who he likes over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez’ picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who called Mystik Dan as an 18-1 live longshot in last year’s race.
2025 Kentucky Derby odds, post positions
2025 Kentucky Derby contenders
1 Citizen Bull | 2 Neoequos | 3 Final Gambit | 4 Rodriguez | 5 American Promise | 6 Admire Daytona | 7 Luxor Cafe | 8 Journalism | 9 Burnham Square | 10 Grande | 11 Flying Mohawk | 12 East Avenue | 13 Publisher | 14 Tiztastic | 15 Render Judgment | 16 Coal Battle | 17 Sandman | 18 Sovereignty | 19 Chunk of Gold | 20 Owen Almighty