The College Football Playoff hits the big time as it transitions from first-round games on campus to the quarterfinals and major bowl games. For Georgia, it’s a familiar scene. The Bulldogs haven’t lost a bowl game in six years. That’s not the case for Notre Dame, which hasn’t won a major bowl game since 1994 at the Cotton Bowl, well before the advent of the BCS and later the CFP.
Is this Notre Dame’s breakthrough moment? Or is the Big Easy yet another easy stop for the Bulldogs, whose last two bowl appearances also marked the largest margin of victories in bowl history? The Bulldogs drilled Florida State by 60 points in the Orange Bowl last season and won the national title with a 58-point beating of TCU in 2023.
But this year seems different, doesn’t it? Georgia’s top-five defenses of the past have regressed to an 11-year low as a top-35 unit. Notre Dame is not just winning, but winning big with an unstoppable rushing offense and a top-10 defense, including the playoff’s best pass defense (96.9 opponent pass rating). Plus, Georgia is set to send first-time starter Gunner Stockton into the fray as quarterback. He’ll try to out-gun and out-run counterpart Riley Leonard, who has more career touchdowns (75) than Stockton has pass attempts (51).
The Sugar Bowl is the site of fond memories for Georgia faithful, who celebrated their first national championship in 1980 with a win against Notre Dame. The Bulldogs are 3-0 against the Irish. The question is whether the past matters at all with the new-look Irish on the scene.
Georgia vs. Notre Dame: Need to know
Can Gunner Stockton deliver big throws in crucial situations? Let’s face it: the quarterback position hasn’t necessarily been as critical in Georgia’s success compared to past years, but losing Carson Beck is still a hefty punch to the gut. There is a silver lining, however, and perhaps a small advantage gained for the Bulldogs with Beck out for the season. Stockton certainly doesn’t possess Beck’s NFL-ready arm, but the backup is a better runner than his predecessor. Fitting, perhaps, that Beck owned and drove a Lamborghini this season while Stockton continues to drive a 1984 Ford F-150. Stockton is a rugged runner, and, dare we say, “gritty” performer. Those are qualities that can help a team in a tight game, even if he’s not the type known to deliver 30-plus yard throws. He led Georgia on three scoring drives in the second half of its overtime win against Texas in the SEC Championship Game, so big-game experience is no longer a question.
Notre Dame to be without top defensive lineman: Notre Dame has managed to win despite losing multiple starters to injuries throughout the season, but will the Irish’ depth be challenged more than ever against Georgia? The Irish lost All-American defensive tackle Rylie Mills to a knee injury in their playoff win against Indiana. Mills was a dominant force in the last half of the season and led the team with 7.5 sacks, including 4.5 in the last five games. He also had 27 quarterback pressures. In a season that has already experienced the losses of edge rushers Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore, can the Irish afford another loss? Mills isn’t just the sacks leader but also a team captain, and someone coach Marcus Freeman leaned on to rally teammates on the field. “You can’t replace Rylie Mills,” Freeman said.
Gabriel Rubio stepped in for Mills and provided a solid performance, most notably when he chased down an Indiana receiver on a screen to force a third-and-short. Senior All-American Howard Cross III returned against Indiana after missing the final three games of the regular season with an injury, but is he full speed for the quarterfinals?
Who has the advantage in the trenches? Notre Dame’s success is predicated on running the ball; Georgia’s success depends on stopping the run. Notre Dame averages 222.4 rushing yards per game compared to Georgia’s top-35 rush defense (127.8 ypg). Slowing running back Jeremiyah Love (rushing TDs in every game this season) and quarterback Riley Leonard (15 rushing TDs) is crucial for the Bulldogs, particularly with the Irish struggling to throw against most opponents (No. 101 nationally in ypg). Georgia’s defense is nowhere close to the impenetrable walls that built the Bulldogs’ championship runs in recent years, but they’re still focused on slowing down the running game. If that fails, Notre Dame, which has rushed for 42 touchdowns as a team (most since 1989), has a gigantic advantage.
Where to watch Georgia vs. Notre Dame live
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1 | Time: 8:45 p.m. ET
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction, picks
Georgia is the slight favorite (-1.5), according to the SportsLine consensus, which gives me pause. The Bulldogs enter the playoffs 1-9 against the spread as the favorite this season. There’s no doubt Georgia played a more difficult schedule than Notre Dame, and the grind was noticeable with two overtime wins to end the season, but one does wonder if the Bulldogs are allowing opponents to better dictate the tempo of those games, resulting in closer-than-expected results. Gunner Stockton appears to be a gamer at quarterback, even if he’s not the most talented passer, but that plays into Notre Dame’s hands with one of the nation’s best pass defenses. Everything points to a Notre Dame win, even with Kirby Smart’s knack in preparing his teams for playoff runs. Pick: Notre Dame SU
SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for 10 outright upsets during college football’s bowl and playoff season. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates every matchup 10,000 times.
