Athletics first baseman Tyler Soderstrom is the new MLB home run leader after blasting two home runs against the White Sox on Tuesday to lift his season total to eight. Soderstrom’s prodigious power once made him a consensus top-60 MLB prospect and the 23-year-old is realizing that power in his third MLB season. However, to keep the momentum going, he’ll have to overcome chilly conditions (44 degrees) with the wind blowing in at Rate Field in Chicago on Wednesday night. The latest MLB home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook price Soderstrom at +520 to go yard again, so should you add him to your MLB HR picks?
All 30 teams are in action during the Wednesday MLB schedule, so there are a litany of options for your MLB home run bets. Yankees slugger Aaron Judge (+210) has the shortest odds on the home run odds board, even though he has not gone yard since April 4. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run parlay picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. It went 2-for-3 in HR bets Monday, hitting on Shohei Ohtani at +290 and Bobby Witt at +340, then hit Soderstrom for a +370 payout on Tuesday. The SportsLine Projection Model has nailed a HR prop in six out of the last eight days and is up 15.2 units in that period. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR props on Wednesday. These three picks can be parlayed for +15025 odds and would pay out $756.25 on a $5 bet at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Byron Buxton (+420)
Buxton has only played more than 102 games in a season once in his 11-year MLB career, but his power numbers when he has been healthy are eye-popping. He’s hit 95 home runs in 379 games over the last five seasons, which would put him on a 162-game pace for 41 home runs per season. Buxton got off to a sluggish start but he did have a multi-hit game on Tuesday and has homered in two of his last five games.
“Mets’ primary pitcher Justin Hagenman has allowed 4 HRs in just 10.1 IP in the minors this season,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner said. “Despite being a righty, Buxton’s career slugging numbers are slightly better against RHPs than LHPs in his career. We set the line at +340 for Buxton to hit a HR.” FanDuel has the best pricing for this MLB home run prop but our home run parlay pricing is from BetMGM at +340.
Corey Seager (+450)
Seager has hit 30 home runs or more in all three of his seasons with the Rangers, so it feels like a matter of time before he starts to heat up. He had a two-homer game last week in Chicago against the Cubs and appears to be seeing the ball well of late, going 5-for-11 over his last three games. He’s also 1-for-2 in his career with a home run off expected Angels starter Jose Soriano.
“Seager is starting to heat up and has an OPS over 1.000 and 3 HRs in his last 8 games,” Fetner said. “We set this line at +290 for Seager to hit a HR today.” That makes Seager an incredible value with BetMGM offering +450 odds.
Matt Mervis (+525)
Mervis had a couple of brief stints with the Cubs over the last two seasons but has earned a more regular role with the Marlins this season and he’ll celebrate his 27th birthday on Wednesday. He’s homered in three of his last four games and has gone yard five times now already this season. Mervis also hit 52 home runs in 242 career games in Triple-A, so power is his true calling card.
“Brandon Pfaadt allowed 3 HRs in his lone road start this season. He has allowed 29 HRs in 26 road starts in his career, and left handed batters have an .830 OPS against him. These are all favorable stats for ‘Mash’ Mervis,” Fetner said. Once again, it’s BetMGM offering the best price for Mervis to hit a home run.
Want more MLB picks for Wednesday?
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for some popular props on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
You can also see today’s best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who’s on a commanding 50-25 roll on baseball picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 50-25 roll.
Want more MLB player prop predictions? SportsLine’s Prop Bet Guy Doug is 17-11 on his last 28 MLB props and you can find all his latest selections now. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert on a 17-11 MLB prop run.