The NFL’s lone remaining unbeaten team is in action on Monday night as the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football.”
Kansas City has seemingly been getting by, by the skin of its teeth for much of the season, with five of its seven wins coming by a mere one score. But the Chiefs now sport a top-five defense in addition to their league-best quarterback, and that’s quite the formula for winning football games.
Tampa Bay has been the best team in the NFC South for much of the season, but enters this game incredibly shorthanded thanks to injury issues at wide receiver (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin) and on defense (multiple players). The Bucs
had gotten off to a somewhat surprising 4-2 start, but they’ve lost back-to-back games and are now limping into one of the toughest environments in all of football.
Will the Chiefs remain unbeaten, or will the Bucs walk into Kansas City pull off an upset? We’ll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Date: Monday, Nov. 4 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Channel: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -9; O/U 45.5 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
Check out the latest Caesars promo code to get in the game.
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Despite the absences of each of their top two receivers, this Bucs offense was still able to put up 432 total yards and 26 points last week against the Falcons. This Chiefs defense … is not the Falcons.
Kansas City entered Week 9 having allowed the second-fewest yards and fifth-fewest points in the NFL, while ranking seventh in opponent yards per play, sixth in EPA per play allowed and third in the share of opponent plays that gained 20 or more yards, via Tru Media. The Chiefs have one of the stingiest secondaries in the NFL, led by star cornerback Trent McDuffie, and they can generate pressure with the best of them thanks to Chris Jones and George Karlaftis up front.
Of course, Baker Mayfield has been balling this season himself. He’s completed a career-high (by far) 71.1% of his passes at an average of 7.7 yards per attempt, with 21 touchdowns against just 9 interceptions. He’s getting the ball out quickly, averaging 2.75 seconds to throw; and when facing pressure he has done an excellent job of avoiding sacks (6.6% sack rate) and either buying time or taking off downfield (25.3% scramble-to-pressure ratio and 8.0 yards per scramble).
But almost all of that production has come with Evans and Godwin on the field, and he won’t have them on Monday night. Instead, his top targets will be tight end Cade Otton, running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving and wideouts Jalen McMillan (who is dealing with a hamstring injury), Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard (also dealing with an injury). That’s not the group with which you want to go into a game against Steve Spagnuolo.
The game will almost certainly depend on Mayfield beating Spags’ defense, though, because absolutely nobody runs the ball on the Chiefs. Kansas City has allowed more than 82 rushing yards to only the Ravens and 49ers this season, and has yielded just 3.5 yards per carry overall — the second-lowest figure in the NFL. Irving has done quite well generating yards both before and after contact, but Tampa’s insistence on giving nearly half its carries to White drives down the team’s per-carry efficiency. Either way, the two backs (and Sean Tucker, if he gets action) are unlikely to find much room to roam.
When the Chiefs have the ball
The opposite side of the ball presents a somewhat opposite state of affairs. The Chiefs remain banged up and without three of Patrick Mahomes’ most best or most-trusted pass-catchers in Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Tampa’s defense has been so friendly to opposing offenses that it seems like K.C. should be able to find more success than usual.
The Bucs are 30th in the NFL in yards allowed and 27th in points allowed, and they have been equally burnable on the ground and through the air. They have been below-average at generating sacks and pressure, and they’ve allowed nearly 2 yards per carry before contact and over 3.2 yards per carry after it thanks to their being one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL.
They could also possibly be without Antoine Winfield Jr. on Monday after he was downgraded from a full practice on Thursday to limited on Friday and then DNP on Saturday, which is never a good sign. Defensive lineman Greg Gaines is out as well, adding to the issues the Bucs already have up front.
The Chiefs have not been their usual machine-like selves on offense this season, but Kareem Hunt has stabilized the run game and Patrick Mahomes somehow is somehow on the border of the top 10 in leaguewide EPA per dropback despite having thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, because he is making just about every necessary throw on the plays where he hasn’t been picked.
With DeAndre Hopkins presumably more integrated into the offense this week than last, when he played only 32% of snaps just a few days after arriving via trade from Tennessee, Mahomes should have another reliable target alongside Travis Kelce for this game. Tampa has been one of the league’s poorest defenses at defending tight ends this season, yielding 518 receiving yards to players at the position — more than all but six teams in the NFL. In other words, Kelce should be in position to have himself a really nice evening.
Prediction: Chiefs 26, Buccaneers 13
Somebody might eventually beat the Chiefs this season, but I’m betting it’s probably not going to be a Bucs team that enters this game incredibly short-handed on both sides of the ball. Add the injuries and the setting (in Arrowhead) to the fact that the Chiefs have one of the NFL’s best defenses and there is just too much for Tampa to overcome on Monday night.
Bonus: Micah Roberts, who is on a 19-7 roll on Buccaneers games, has released his best bets for the Week 9 Buccaneers vs. Chiefs matchup. Roberts is leaning the Over total, but who is he backing to cover? Find out right here at Sportsline.
