Bitcoin has done very little over the weekend, hugging the $26,500 price level with minimal volumes and volatility.
Market analyst and chart guru “PlanB” has been tweaking his pricing models since the infamous stock-to-flow model has been potentially invalidated by this extended bear market.
With the new market phase naming, BTC is still in the accumulation phase of the four periods.
When asked about the next bull market, the analyst predicted it would be after the 2024 halving in April and would last for about eight months.
Bitcoin still in stage 1, accumulation, on track!
Ps I changed the stage names into more intuitive ones:
🔵 stage 1 – accumulation
🟢 stage 2 – bull market
🟡 stage 3 – bear market
🔴 stage 4 – liquidation pic.twitter.com/QEdkGT5Xpe
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) September 17, 2023
Another Flush Out?
Fellow analyst “Rekt Capital” was a little more bullish, claiming, “Make no mistake – Bitcoin is in an early stage Bull Market.”
However, he said that “we may or may not get one last major correction” over the next seven months.
Another flush-out is good for those who still have stablecoins or fiat waiting on the sidelines to enter the markets. However, current levels are still more than 60% down from the last cycle peak.
Make no mistake – Bitcoin is in an early stage Bull Market
Long-term the outlook is bullish
Over the next 7 months, we may or may not get 1 last major correction
Will it happen?
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 17, 2023
MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe observed that Bitcoin was closing above the 200-week EMA, “which is vital for bullish continuation.”
“Next week, we should continue to do so and price starts to look similar to the 2015/2016 cycle,” he added.
“Rekt Capital” added that the last time BTC rejected from the 50-week EMA, it retraced -20%.
“If history repeats and BTC were to reject -20% from here, price would drop into the $21,000 area.”
Sentiment remains at “fear” with a fear and greed index figure of 46. However, it has moved back towards the neutral zone following the slump to 30 on September 12.
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin prices have made a move during Monday morning Asian trading with a spike to $26,700. It could not be sustained, however, with BTC already retreating to $26,611 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin is up 4% over the past week and 2.5% over the last month. However, it has consolidated around current levels since the slump in mid-August.
Zooming out shows that the asset has been trending sideways since mid-March, with major resistance just above the $30K zone and solid support at $25K.