Bills vs. Broncos odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, NFL predictions by model on 28-15 run

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The Buffalo Bills will try to pull within a half-game of division-leading Miami in the AFC North standings when they host the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football at Highmark Stadium. The Bills (5-4) enter MNF a full game behind the Dolphins in the division. If the season ended today, Buffalo would be out of the seven-team AFC playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Broncos (3-5) sit at the bottom of the AFC West standings. Only one team, the Patriots (2-8), has fewer wins in the conference than Denver.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Broncos odds while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before you make any Broncos vs. Bills picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 174-123 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 28-15 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has zeroed in on Bills vs. Broncos and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Broncos vs. Bills:

  • Bills vs. Broncos spread: Buffalo -7.5
  • Bills vs. Broncos over/under: 47.5 points
  • Bills vs. Broncos money line: Buffalo -325, Denver +254
  • BUF: WR Stefon Diggs leads the league in receptions (70)
  • DEN: QB Russell Wilson ranks fifth in the NFL in passer rating (101.7)
  • Bills vs. Broncos: See picks here
  • Bills vs. Broncos live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo’s Josh Allen has played much better at home than on the road this season. The dual-threat quarterback is completing 67.2% of his passes and has 11 touchdown passes versus seven interceptions in five games away from Buffalo this season. The Bills are 1-4 in those contests. In four home games, he is completing 77.3% of his passes and has 13 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Buffalo is 4-0 in those games.

In addition, the Bills have a prolific wideout in Stefon Diggs. The former All-Pro receiver already ranks fifth in franchise history in receiving yards (5,023) despite playing just 58 games with Buffalo. Only Andre Reed (13,095 yards), Eric Moulds (9,096), Lee Evans (5,934) and Elbert Dubenion (5,294) have more. See which team to pick here.

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver quarterback Russell Wilson has excelled in primetime games over his career. In 46 career primetime starts (including 42 with the Seahawks), Wilson has a 30-15-1 record. He has 81 touchdown passes versus 28 interceptions in those games and a passer rating of 99.6.

In addition, the Broncos face a Buffalo offense that has struggled generating big plays (runs of at least 10 yards and passes of at least 25 yards) this season. The Bills are averaging 1.89 big plays through the air and 2.78 big plays on the ground. Last year, they averaged 2.00 big passes and 3.89 big runs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Bills vs. Broncos picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, predicting 48 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can see the model’s NFL picks and analysis only at SportsLine. 

So who wins Broncos vs. Bills on Monday Night Football and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Bills spread you should jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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