The last thing you want to do in Fantasy Football is overreact to one week. That’s just a lot easier to remember in Week 8 than it is in Week 1. In Week 1, that one week is all we have and can seem like a new reality. It’s often not. As a rule, it takes four weeks before this year’s numbers are more predictive than last year’s. At the same time, if we don’t react to anything early in the season, we’re going to miss the boat on the top waiver wire guys and we’re going to keep starting sinking ships.
What I propose, at least for the first two weeks, is that we react to volume much more quickly than efficiency. But even that needs to be put in context. I don’t actually believe Lamar Jackson is going to have more carries than Derrick Henry this season. I think Henry’s role had more to do with game script and the Ravens won’t be playing from being very often this season. Some people are not so sure:
So what did matter on Thursday night?
Isaiah Likely was the clear and obvious winner. He played more than two-thirds of the snaps, led the Ravens with a 30% target share, and caught nine of 12 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. He was less than one inch away from a second touchdown on the final play of the game. I had Likely projected for an 8% target share, so there is obviously a big adjustment to be made here, but it doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
Mark Andrews looks like the biggest loser, with his two catches for 14 yards on two targets. Andrews did not look like himself and was not even running his full complement of routes. One thing we have to ask before deciding how much to move Likely up is whether we believe Andrews is cooked. I am not ready to say that after one game. My Ravens target share projection for Week 2 will have Andrews falling from 22% to 19%, with Likely rising to 14%. If Likely has a clear edge in Week 2, then I’ll adjust further. For now, I expect both with be in my top-12 rankings at tight end in Week 2, and I expect Andrews will be ranked slightly higher. Needless to say, if Likely is on your waiver wire, you should put a big bid on him, it may take all your FAB.
The other big surprise in the Ravens target share was Justice Hill at 20%. I did boost him up to 12% for Week 2, but I feel even more cautious about this. While John Harbaugh was adamant this offseason that Hill would play a lot, I believe his target share had more to do with game script and the Chiefs pass rush. Then again, the Ravens offensive line may just make everyone’s pass rush look great.
Speaking of that line, I am not adjusting Henry’s efficiency based on one game, but I will if there’s not a bounce back in Week 2 against the Raiders. I’m also not adjusting Henry’s rush share, again I think that had more to do with script. But I will quickly adjust if Lamar has more carries again in Week 2.
On the Chiefs side, it was a great night for Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, but Rice is the only one who gets a big adjustment. His 33% target share was the high in the game and I had him projected at 22%. He was at 25% down the stretch in 2023, so that’s where I am setting him for Week 2. Worthy actually saw fewer targets than I had projected, but played a ton of snaps, so I am leaving him where he was. Rice is likely to be a top-10 wide receiver in Week 2 and rest of season.
Two players I’m watching in Week 2 for the Chiefs are Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco. Kelce’s 14.8% target share was disappointing, and I dinged him a little bit for Week 2, but a bigger fall could be coming. Pacheco was over 10% target share and had a 75% rush share. If he keeps that up he’s going to have a chance to be a top-five running back.
