The Six Pack did not get off to the 6-0 start we were looking for last week, but it’s alright. We took our lumps in the first week of the season, going 2-4, but the lessons we learned were far more valuable than any dollar amount.
We were finally able to put aside what we thought teams would look like and instead saw them with our own eyes. We have a better idea of who was overhyped and who might be flying under the radar. We know which offenses plan to move quickly and which ones are happy to plod along.
Perhaps more importantly, we learned to never bet on Wyoming again. You’re always going to have whiffs when it comes to betting, particularly early in the season with limited information, but that may have been the biggest miss in the history of this column.
But we move on. What doesn’t kill us makes us stronger, so let’s attack Week 2.
Odds via SportsLine consensus
Games of the Week
No. 3 Texas at No. 10 Michigan: I won’t pretend I don’t have serious concerns about Michigan after what I saw from its offense last week against Fresno State. And I’m not only talking about the quarterback situation. I was more concerned with what I saw from the offensive line than anything, and it gives me a lot of pause when approaching the biggest game on the schedule for the weekend. If the Wolverines had trouble blocking Fresno State up front, what should we realistically expect against Texas? At the same time, for as mid as Michigan looked on offense, it still won 30-10. The defense was as advertised, and as long as that remains the case, this team has a chance against anybody.
And as impressive as the Longhorns looked against Colorado State, they struggled to run the ball. Considering their injuries at the position, it’s not a shock. Can they improve upon that against Michigan? I’m skeptical, and if Michigan is able to make Texas one-dimensional and heat up Quinn Ewers with blitzes, could we see the Longhorns make mistakes on the road? In the end, this is a difficult game to read, but I come back to one thing: Michigan won a national title last season, and it’s a touchdown underdog at home. The Pick: Michigan +7.5 (-110)
No. 14 Tennessee at No. 24 NC State: All aboard the Nico hype train! Choo choo! I am in love with Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava and feel no shame about it. The kid is an incredible blend of talent and performance, and to see how poised and polished he looks with so little experience is eye-opening. Believe me, I watch a lot of tape of college QBs, and they’re college QBs. They do dumb stuff. Nico looks like an NFL veteran. He gives me the kind of vibes I had when watching guys like Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow and Caleb Williams. Yes, this weekend’s opponent will be a far more difficult test than Chattanooga was, but I have full faith in Iamaleava.
It doesn’t hurt that the rest of this Tennessee team is pretty good, too! As for the Wolfpack, last week’s performance against Western Carolina wasn’t impressive, but I try not to read too much into bad games in the first week of the season. Plenty of good teams have opened the year with stinkers, and that could prove to be the case with this Wolfpack squad. My concern is that I don’t think this NC State team is as good in the front seven as it has been in recent years, and I have serious questions about whether this offense can keep up with the Volunteers for 60 minutes. The Pick: Tennessee -7.5 (-114)
Lock of the Week
Iowa State at No. 21 Iowa: It’s fun to goof around about Iowa being an offensive juggernaut after it put up 40 points against Illinois State. The Hawkeyes aren’t likely to set scoring records this season, but I believe the offensive improvements are legitimate. QB Cade McNamara isn’t perfect, but he’s leaps and bounds better than Deacon Hill. The Hawkeyes appear to have playmakers at receiver this season, which hasn’t been the case in a while.
Iowa State looked mediocre last week, but that doesn’t concern me. Here’s what does: this team is extremely thin at linebacker right now, and it could be down a player or two on the offensive line. Stud running back Abu Sama was banged up against North Dakota, but I believe the Cyclones were simply being cautious taking him out of a game they felt they controlled. This a rivalry game, and I know anything can happen, but I can see a scenario in which the Cyclones can’t get stops against this Hawkeyes offense. Yes, it feels very strange to type that sentence out and read it back, but it’s true. Pick: Iowa -2.5 (-112)
Underdog of the Week
Georgia Southern at Nevada: There may not be a team with a bigger coaching upgrade in the country than Nevada. The Wolf Pack brought Jeff Choate to Reno, and the dividends are immediately paying off. My theory is that while the Pack are being taken more seriously by the books, the line hasn’t caught all the way up yet. Nevada should be favored in this spot at home.
If you watched Georgia Southern last week, you saw its defense allow 9.86 yards per play against Boise State. Ashton Jeanty ran all over the Eagles, and they couldn’t do much to stop the pass, either. And they’re road favorites after that performance? Maybe they should be, but I’m not putting my money on it. Pick: Nevada +1.5 (-110)
Under of the Week
South Carolina at Kentucky: If I were to issue a set of power rankings every week of games most likely to finish with a 9-6 score, this would be No. 1. It could get ugly. The Wildcats offense was actually pretty decent against Southern Miss last week, but it moved at a glacier-like pace, and I don’t think that was solely the plan for Southern; I think it’s just what Kentucky wants to do. Meanwhile, South Carolina ran a billion plays (OK, so it was only 72), but nearly all were terrible.
The Gamecocks currently rank 107th in points per possession, 108th in EPA per play and 105th in explosive play rate. The passing game, in particular, was tough to watch. I expect the Gamecocks will try to play with pace in this spot but won’t be successful enough to do so. It’s much more likely Kentucky will take command and go boa constrictor on the game clock. Pick: Under 42.5 (-108)
Want even more college football picks? The Cover 3 Podcast has you covered with their best bets for spreads, point totals and more for Week 2’s biggest games. Watch below starting at 11 a.m. ET.
Over of the Week
Texas Tech at Washington State: Texas Tech allowed 51 points last week, which isn’t all that crazy given the history of the program. However, what if I told you that it was Abilene Christian putting up the 51 points? OK, now what if I told you Abilene Christian went 5-6 last season? These facts don’t fill you with a lot of confidence about this defense, do they? Yeah, me neither.
Consider, too, that Washington State put up 637 yards and 70 points on Portland State. But wait! There’s more! The Cougars also gave up 30 points! So between these two, we saw them score 122 points against FCS competition last week while allowing 81. The total for this game suddenly looks too low, doesn’t it? Pick: Over 66.5 (-110)
|
Games of the Week |
2-0 |
2-0 |
+2.00 |
|
Lock of the Week |
0-1 |
0-1 |
-1.10 |
|
Overall |
2-4 |
2-4 |
-2.43 |
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