The start of the 2024 NFL season is just days away, which means it’s time to make some predictions.
Over the years, one thing I’ve noticed about making NFL predictions is that half the reason people love reading predictions is so that they can make fun of you at the end of the season when all your predictions end up being wrong, but that’s not going to be an issue this year, because I’m not planning on getting any wrong.
That being said, if you do want to make fun of my predictions, you can send all your hate tweets to me on Twitter by clicking here, and just so you know, Bills fans, I’m already mentally preparing for your tweets.
Before we get to my predictions, let me explain how things are going to work here: I’m going to go through each division and predict each team’s final record. After that, I’ll be making one bold prediction for each division.
Once you roll through the divisional portion of these predictions, you’ll see my playoff picks and eventually the team I’m picking to win the Super Bowl. In four of the past nine years I’ve correctly picked the AFC team that ended up in the Super Bowl, and in two of the past eight years my preseason Super Bowl pick has ended up winning it all.
Finally, if you’re wondering how I did last season, I predicted five of the eight teams that made the divisional round of the playoffs. I also picked the exact record or came within one game of picking the exact record for 13 different teams, including the Bills, who I said would go 11-6 (and they went 11-6). I’m only pointing that out because I don’t think Bills fans are going to like my prediction for their team this year. On the other hand, I completely whiffed on the Texans. I had them going 4-13 and if you watched any football in 2023, then you already know that the Texans didn’t go 4-13. With C.J. Stroud leading the way, the Texans ended up mocking my prediction by going 10-7 and winning the AFC South.
You don’t care about last year though, so let’s get to the 2024 predictions.
AFC East
1. *Dolphins: 11-6
2. *Jets: 10-7
3. Bills: 9-8
4. Patriots: 3-14
AFC East bold prediction: Bills miss the playoffs
Apparently, some people think Josh Allen is overrated, but I would like everyone to know that I am not one of those people. I actually trust Allen a lot, it’s everyone else on the offense that I don’t trust. Not only did the Bills trade away their top receiver (Stefon Diggs), but they also let Gabe Davis walk in free agency. The Bills just don’t have anyone who scares you at wide receiver and that’s one reason why I expect the offense to take a step back. As long as the Bills have Allen, they’ll always be a playoff contender, but just because you’re contending doesn’t necessarily mean you actually make he playoffs and I”m going to say the 2024 season will mark the first time in six years that Buffalo will miss the postseason. Will I jump through a flaming table if I’m wrong? I won’t rule it out. I deserve to be punished if I whiff on this prediction.
AFC North
1. *Ravens: 12-5
2. *Bengals: 11-6
3. Browns: 9-8
4. Steelers: 8-9
AFC North bold prediction: Steelers finish in last place for first time in 36 years
The Pittsburgh Steelers have two of the most impressive streaks in the NFL going right now. First, they haven’t finished in last place in their division since 1988. Second, Mike Tomlin has been the Steelers coach since 2007, and in the 17 seasons since then, he has NEVER finished with a losing record. As they say, all good things must come to an end and I think we’ll end up seeing both streaks end this year. I think someone in the NFL scheduling office actually wants those streaks to end, because the Steelers were handed arguably the most brutal schedule of any team in the NFL over the second half of the season. Their final eight games all come against teams that finished above .500 last season (Ravens x 2, Browns x 2, Bengals x 2, Chiefs, Eagles). I think that stretch will be the Steelers’ undoing.
Last year, I predicted that every AFC North team would finish above .500 and that actually happened, which marked the first time since 1935 that an NFL division had pulled that off.
AFC South
1. *Texans: 10-7
2. Jaguars: 8-9
3. Colts: 7-10
4. Titans: 6-11
AFC South bold prediction: Texans have three receivers hit 1,000 yards
There have only been five instances in NFL history where one team has produced three receivers that all hit the 1,000 yard mark in the same season and it feels like that Texans could join that exclusive club this year. After trading for Stefon Diggs, the Texans now have three receivers certainly capable of hitting that number in Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. They also have a quarterback in C.J. Stroud who loves to spread the ball around (The Texans had six players last year with at least 30 catches. To put that in perspective, the Chiefs only had three).
Diggs has finished with at least 1,000 yards in six straight seasons, so it would be somewhat surprising if he DIDN’T hit that number this year. Nico Collins blew past that number during a 2023 season that saw him break out with 1,297 yards. As for Dell, who was a rookie last season, he finished with 709 yards in just 11 games before suffering a season-ending injury. With those numbers, he was on pace for 1,095 yards. Dell might be the biggest question mark here: Not only is he coming back from a fractured fibula, but he was also SHOT during the offseason. Despite that, he seems good to go. If the Texans’ trio can all hit 1,000 yards, Houston would become the first team since the 2008 Cardinals to have three players hit that mark in the same season.
AFC West
1. *Chiefs: 12-5
2. *Chargers: 10-7
3. Broncos: 7-10
4. Raiders: 6-11
AFC West bold prediction: Bo Nix wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.
I know I said these were going to be bold predictions, but I might have made the jump over to crazy with this one. When it comes to Offensive Rookie of the Year, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels will be popular picks, but I’m going to roll with Nix. If he has one advantage over Williams and Daniels, it’s that he has an offensive-minded head coach who also happens to be one of the smartest minds in NFL history: Sean Payton. Payton will take his system and tweak it so that it’s perfect for Nix. Payton’s system is designed for quarterbacks to put up big numbers and if you need proof, just go back and look at Drew Brees’ career numbers. Nix obviously isn’t Brees, but he does have some of the same attributes: He’s smart, he’s accurate and he plays within Payton’s system (aka he doesn’t go off-script like Russell Wilson tended to do in Denver last year). I fully expect Nix to put up some better-than-expected passing numbers in 2024.
NFC East
1. *Cowboys: 10-7
2. *Eagles: 9-8
3. Commanders: 7-10
4. Giants: 6-11
NFC East bold prediction: NFC East has first repeat champion since 2004.
On paper, this doesn’t sound like a very bold prediction, but any time you pick a team to repeat as champion in the NFC East, it counts as bold. The division has somehow gone 20 YEARS without a repeat champion. The last team to pull off the feat was the Eagles when they won three division titles in a row from 2003-05. The Eagles (-140) are actually the favorites to win the NFC East this year, so taking the Cowboys is somewhat bold. The only problem with the Cowboys winning the division is that Jerry Jones would take all the credit for it (“I told you we we’re all-in”), even though he did his best to derail the team this offseason.
Dak Prescott is going into the final year of his contract, Mike McCarthy is going into the final year of his contract, so they both have a big incentive to win and I think that factor will be the driving force that pushes the Cowboys over the top.
NFC North
1. *Lions: 12-5
2. *Packers: 11-6
3. Bears: 8-9
4. Vikings: 6-11
NFC North bold prediction: Jared Goff wins MVP.
I have decided to back a total dark horse for MVP this year, and no, Jared Goff is not paying me to write this (But if you need my Venmo, Jared, just let me know).
So why do I like Goff? The criteria for winning MVP has basically become two-fold: You have to be a quarterback and you have to play for one of the best teams in the NFL. I think the Lions are going to be one of the best teams in the NFL this year, which I think will put Goff in the MVP conversation, especially if he plays like he did last year. In 2023, Goff finished with the second most passing yards in league and he also had the fourth-most touchdown passes. That’s impressive, and I think he might be able to improve on those numbers for one big reason: He gets to play nearly the entire season indoors. Thirteen of Detroit’s first 14 games are indoors. They only play three outdoor games all year and one is against the 49ers, so weather likely won’t be an issue for Goff or the Lions this year. This schedule sets up for Goff to have a big year and I think it’s going to happen.
Last year, my dark horse pick was Dak Prescott and he ended up finishing second in the MVP vote, so I will now be hoping Goff tops that.
NFC South
1. *Falcons: 10-7
2. Buccaneers: 8-9
3. Saints: 6-11
4. Panthers: 4-13
NFC South bold prediction: Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in passing yards
The last time Cousins played a full season came in 2022 with the Vikings, and he actually put up some huge passing numbers that year, throwing for 4,547 yards, which ranked fourth in the NFL. With Cousins now in Atlanta, I’m expecting even bigger numbers. Sure, I’m slightly worried that he’s 36 years old and coming off a torn Achilles. And yes, I do worry about the fact that he’ll have T.J. Watt chasing him around in Week 1, but I’m going to overlook all of that and stick with this prediction. Cousins doesn’t seem like a guy who normally plays with a chip on his shoulder, but I feel like he’ll be playing with one this year after watching the Falcons draft Michael Penix. If Cousins doesn’t want Falcons fans calling for the rookie QB to replace him by the time Week 3 rolls around, then he’s going to have to have a big season and that’s certainly possible with weapons like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Bijan Robinson.
NFC West
1. *Rams: 12-5
2. *49ers: 11-6
3. Seahawks: 7-10
4. Cardinals: 6-11
NFC West bold prediction: Rams win the division and get the No. 1 seed in the NFC
The Rams were totally slept on last year and I kind of feel like everyone is sleeping on them again this year. The good news for me is that I don’t sleep on anyone, because I don’t sleep at all (That’s what happens when you live with a two-month old baby). Sean McVay has proven for seven straight seasons that he’s one of the smartest offensive minds in the NFL and he’s going to have a loaded offense to work with this season. If Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both healthy, Matthew Stafford might throw for 5,000 yards. Not only do I think this team can win the NFC West over the 49ers, but I think they could end up stealing the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
NFC playoffs
Teams: 1. Rams 2. Lions 3. Cowboys 4. Falcons 5. 49ers 6. Packers 7. Eagles
Wild card
(2) 49ers 30-20 over (7) Falcons
(2) Lions 27-17 over (7) Eagles
(6) Packers 31-24 over (3) Cowboys
Divisional
(1) Rams 24-17 over (6) Packers
(2) Lions 30-23 over (5) 49ers
NFC Championship
(2) Lions 27-23 over (1) Rams
AFC playoffs
Teams: 1. Chiefs 2. Ravens 3. Dolphins 4. Texans 5. Bengals 6. Chargers 7. Jets
Wild card
(5) Bengals 27-20 over (4) Texans
(7) Jets 20-17 over (2) Ravens
(3) Dolphins 30-27 over (6) Chargers
Divisional
(5) Bengals 30-23 over (3) Dolphins
(7) Jets 22-19 over (1) Chiefs
AFC Championship
(2) Bengals 23-20 over (7) Jets
Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans
Playoffs bold prediction: Bengals win their first Super Bowl
“As the resident Bengals homer here at CBSSports.com, I am tempted to pick the Bengals to win the Super Bowl every year, but I never actually do it because I don’t want to jinx them, but I’m doing it now. … As long as Joe Burrow stays healthy, this feels like it could be Cincinnati’s year.”
Fun fact: That’s what I wrote for my Super Bowl pick last year, and as we all know, it was not Cincinnati’s year. Joe Burrow got hurt five minutes into his first practice of training camp and then things went south from there. As soon as I mentioned that I didn’t want to jinx the Bengals last year, I knew I was going to jinx the Bengals. The good news for me is that there’s no possible way I can jinx them two years in a row, so I’m rolling with the Bengals again.
This is the best offensive line that Joe Burrow has gotten to play with since he arrived in Cincinnati, which is important, because if you give Burrow time to throw, he’s going to dice you up. As long as Ja’Marr Chase doesn’t skip any games this year due to his contract situation, the Bengals will have the firepower to beat any team in the league.
As for the Lions, they have one of the best rosters in the NFL and they got over their biggest hump last year by winning a playoff game for the first time since 1991. Now that they’ve gotten that out of the way, this feels like a team that’s ready to take the next step and the next step is getting to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
If the Lions do make it, the entire city of Detroit will have to close down during the week of the Super Bowl because every Lions fan will be in New Orleans. The problem for the Lions, though, is that if there’s one guy you don’t want to face in New Orleans, it’s Burrow.
Burrow and Chase won a college national title at the SuperDome, and now, they’re going to team up to win a Super Bowl.
Super Bowl LIX prediction: Bengals 27-24 over Lions
Finally, if my season predictions all pan out — and I’m sure they will — here’s what the top of the NFL Draft order will look like next April.
Order of first five picks for 2025 NFL Draft
1. Patriots
2. Panthers
3. Cardinals
4. Titans
5. Raiders
